Deseret News recently interviewed Natalie Gochnour, economist, and Head of the Kem C Gardner Institute, about the economic status of Utah amid the global pandemic. The first question they asked her was to give an economic overview. Her response was, "in terms of a forecast — and I have to make a big assumption that we get a second federal stimulus and no major economic shutdown — then we would say the worst is over, that April 2020 was the peak job loss. Don’t expect a V-shaped recovery but rather a checkmark or a swoosh. The impacts will continue to be uneven. And that’s by socioeconomic, by industry, by race, by geography. We’ll see more disruptions. We’re in a disruption right now. I think we’ll see more but not as severe. And that’s because April was such an overwhelming body blow that seemingly came out of nowhere with no preparation, no adaptations, which we’ve now been able to put in place.
Our recovery very much depends on our actions, and what policies are put in place, and certainly medical science, and then we will see structural changes on their way.
This is what our unemployment rate looks like today. This job’s report just came out on July 17, so this is very recent data. Utah is in red and the U.S. in gray. Our unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. That was an incredible surprise to really all of us to see it drop that quickly. And it says something about the degree to which our economy reopened. The governor called it a dial, but we treated it like a switch. And, you know, maybe we will live to regret that a bit."
They asked Gochnour if she believed that tightening down the economy was the right response to prevent COVID-19 spread. Her response, "You know, that’s a tough question for me because I don’t see all the data. I think that from what I’m seeing, I’m seeing state decision-makers who are trying to really double down on the need for mask-wearing and they’re going to see what it does. So we’re really trying this important experiment about the social cohesion that exists in Utah. They’re spending a lot of money — you’ll see more and more of it spent on public messaging about it. ...The governor has been really clear. If by Aug. 1 this isn’t improved, he’s reassessing his policies.
Here’s the industry makeup. It compares the number of jobs in 2020 and what were they in 2019 and shows the percent difference. And this is a far better picture than we showed 30 days ago, 60 days ago. But you can see the just gut-wrenching impact to leisure and hospitality.
Natural resources is mostly mining and it took a significant hit. So in June, we’re showing some mining distress, which is mostly Utah’s energy sector. Noteworthy is you see construction being a growth industry, as are financial activities, which is related to the CARES Act and how busy that made our financial institutions. We were even able to eke out a little bit of positive growth in our trade transportation utilities sector. This sector includes mostly trade."
Gochnour and her colleagues at the Kem C. Gardner Institute predict that 2020 will likely be a "lost year" for employment, income, and output in the state. They are hoping that this is only short-term, but its unclear what fall will bring. James Wood, Gardner Institute researcher noted to the Salt Lake Tribune, that in the second half of this year, the economy will bounce back, and Utah leaders won't need to shut down businesses again to contain the virus.